Decision Tool

THE AGRICULTUAL ACT ONF 2014

PAYMENT ESTIMATOR TOOL INSTRUCTIONS

 

Disclaimer – This excel file is intended to help producers make the decisions required by the Agricultural Act of 2014.  It is designed to deal SOLELY with California medium grain rice and offers no assistance for decisions for other covered commodities for which you might have base acres.  This excel file references NASS information (yields) and FSA information (price, base acres).  The producer MUST provide their projections of 2016-2018 yields and prices, which by their very nature will probably not be correct.  By using this Decision Tool, you are agreeing that it generates outcomes based on information that are only estimates and provides no guarantee of actual program payments. 

Tim Kelleher

Step  1.  Print these instructions.

Step  2.  Download Excel File – Decision Tool.2017.PLC and ARC.2017.08.30 and save before doing any input.  Then save a second file with a different name to use for your inputs.  That way if you make an input mistake or somehow corrupt the file you can start over.  This version permits analysis of PLC, ARC-CO and ARC-I.   

Payment Estimator Tool.PLC and ARC.2017.08.30

Explanations and Cautions

      a.   Always start with the Grower Information Tab.  Grower historical information goes into the cells colored orange.                 

      b.   All cells which link to your input are orange numbers in white cells.  Do not change the numbers in these cells!     1234

      c.   You have to estimate prices and yields for 2016 – 2018, so these cells are colored yellow.                                                              

Step 3.  Open Tab – “Grower Information”     

      a.   Input the producer’s name, Farm # and County

      b.   If your farm has elected the PLC program, input PLC Payment Yield.

      c.   Input Medium/short grain base acres.  Payment acres are then automatically calculated.

Step 4.         PLC Farms

For farms that have elected the PLC Program the calculations are simple:

      a.   Grower Information Tab:  On line 2 in the 2016 – 2018 columns, input the prices you believe USDA will calculate for temperate japonica rice (California short and medium grain) for these years.

      b.   Grower Information Tab:  On line 11 in the 2016 – 2018 columns, input the lowest prices you believe USDA will calculate for temperate japonica rice (California short and medium grain) for these years

      c.   Go to the PLC Tab and your projected payments will be calculated.

Step 5.         ARC-CO Farms

For farms that have elected the ARC-CO Program the calculations are more complicated because both price and yields have to be estimated and historical yields are on a county basis.

      a.   Grower Information Tab:  On line 2 in the 2016 – 2018 columns, input the prices you believe USDA will calculate for temperate japonica rice (California short and medium grain) for these years.

      b.   Grower Information Tab:  On line 11 in the 2016 – 2018 columns, input the lowest prices you believe USDA will calculate for temperate japonica rice (California short and medium grain) for these years.

      c.   Grower Information Tab:  On line 4, County Yields, enter the yields in #’s for your county.  You will find these yields on the CA County Rice Yields Tab through 2015.  You will have to estimate the county yield for 2016, 2017 and 2018.  The numbers you enter will automatically be carried down to line 13.

      d.   Go to the ARC-County Tab and your projected payments will be calculated.

Step 6.         ARC-I Farms

For farms that have elected the ARC-I Program the calculations are also more complicated because both price and yields have to be estimated and historical yields are on the producer’s yields on all farms for which ARC-I has been elected, not just on each farm.

      a.  Grower Information Tab:  On line 2 in the 2016 – 2018 columns, input the prices you believe USDA will calculate for temperate japonica rice (California short and medium grain) for these years.

      b.  Grower Information Tab:  On line 11 in the 2016 – 2018 columns, input the lowest prices you believe USDA will calculate for temperate japonica rice (California short and medium grain) for these years.

      c.  Grower Information Tab:  On line 1, Individual Yields, enter your average yield in #’s for all farms on which you have elected ARC-I.  You will have to estimate your average yield for 2017 and 2018.  The numbers you enter will automatically be carried down to line 12.

      d.  Go to the ARC-County Tab and your projected payments will be calculated.   

Caution:  Look at the calculated numbers closely.  If they do not seem to make sense you have made a mistake.  START OVER!

Step 7. Go back to your Grower Information Tab and change your projected prices (only variable for PLC) and yields (ARC-CO and ARC-I) to another scenario that you consider likely to occur.  Then go back through both applicable Tabs to see what happens to payments.

                                                                                                   RICE LAWYERS, INC.                                                       

                                                                                                   Tim Kelleher

                                                                                                   Attorney at Law